1. The sustained development of China's economy is conducive to the development of the low-voltage electrical industry
The average GDP growth rate target for China during the 12th Five Year Plan period is 7%, and the total GDP of China will exceed 55 trillion yuan in 2015. At the same time, under the grand development goals proposed in the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" and the background of sustained macroeconomic growth, fixed assets investment, industrial production and overall consumption, especially the rapid growth of urban population, will certainly drive the growth of power generation and consumption. Therefore, the future market development space of low-voltage electrical appliances will continue to expand.
2. The innovation driven, transformation and upgrading proposed in the 12th Five Year Plan are conducive to the upgrading of the low-voltage electrical appliance industry
The 12th Five Year Plan clearly requires strengthening the transformation of economic development mode and promoting technological innovation.
The large-scale production of medium and low-end products in China's low-voltage electrical industry consumes a large amount of raw materials and energy, and also brings high emissions, which is not conducive to the development of a low-carbon economy. Without transformation, one will face dual constraints of resources and environment. In recent years, some excellent enterprises are developing third-generation improved products and fourth generation low-voltage electrical appliances that will meet the requirements of high performance, high reliability, intelligence, and networking, as well as miniaturization, low energy consumption, and green environmental protection. The design and research and development of low-voltage electrical products have transitioned from mainly imitating design to independent innovative design.
3. The development of China's power industry will continue to promote the development of the low-voltage electrical appliance industry
In recent years, the annual capacity of power generation equipment in China has exceeded the total installed capacity of power generation equipment in the UK and Germany. However, based on the analysis of per capita electricity consumption level, China is still at a low level. In 2010, China's per capita electricity consumption was equivalent to that of the United States in the 1950s, the United Kingdom in the 1960s, and Japan in the 1970s. So, in the long run, China's electricity generation will not exceed its capacity, and there is still enormous development space.
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the total electricity consumption in society is expected to increase by about 8.5% annually, and it will reach 6.27 trillion kilowatt hours by 2015. The total investment in national electricity will increase by 68% compared to the 11th Five Year Plan, reaching 5.3 trillion yuan, of which nearly 1 trillion yuan will be invested in distribution equipment. The installed capacity of national power generation equipment will grow at an average annual rate of 9.34%, and the new capacity added in the past five years will double that of the 11th Five Year Plan.
With the continuous increase of power equipment, it is self-evident that the market for low-voltage electrical appliances and complete equipment will continue to grow. The demand for replacing old products will increase by 15-20% based on the electrical production ten years ago.
4. The comprehensive construction of smart grids will accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the low-voltage electrical industry
The period from 2011 to 2020 will be the main period for the construction of smart grids in China, and the total investment scale of smart grids is expected to be close to 4 trillion yuan. At present, the smart grid has entered an important stage of comprehensive construction, and the intelligent construction of urban and rural distribution networks will be fully launched. The smart grid and intelligent complete equipment, intelligent distribution, and control systems will usher in a golden development period. At the same time, it will accelerate the upgrading and replacement of low-voltage electrical products in China, as well as the re division of the low-voltage electrical market. This will undoubtedly be a blessing for production enterprises with third-generation improvement and fourth generation low-voltage electrical research and development capabilities.
5. The new round of rural power grid transformation will bring new development opportunities to low-voltage electrical enterprises
In January 2011, the country decided to implement a new round of rural power grid renovation and upgrading projects. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, rural power grids across the country will be generally renovated. A new rural power grid that is safe, reliable, energy-saving, environmentally friendly, technologically advanced, and managed in a standardized manner has been basically built.
It is expected that 500 billion yuan will be invested nationwide in this new round of rural power grid renovation project, which has been going on for over a decade. Some people predict that this rural power grid renovation will bring an explosive increase to the low-voltage electrical appliance market. Many experts have not forgotten that during the "Ninth Five Year Plan" period, the bidding for low-voltage electrical appliances in rural power grid renovation overly emphasized product prices, resulting in a large number of low-end low-voltage electrical appliances with poor performance being used in rural power grids. It brings many hidden dangers to the safe and reliable operation of rural power grids. This rural power grid renovation must emphasize the quality, performance, and reliability of electrical equipment products.
6. The new generation of low-voltage electrical appliances is about to be launched in the market, which will comprehensively drive industry transformation and upgrading
The new generation of low-voltage electrical appliances in our country first emphasizes independent innovation and completely breaks away from the research and development model dominated by imitation. Therefore, it is proposed that the new generation of products should have significant breakthroughs in the application of new technologies, significant innovations in the structure of new products, and significant improvements in the performance and functionality of new products. At the same time, it should be able to fully meet the development requirements of smart grid distribution systems, while emphasizing green, environmental protection, and high reliability. Therefore, low-voltage electrical appliance manufacturers who lack innovation capabilities, product design technology, manufacturing capabilities, and outdated equipment will face elimination in the industry reshuffle. Enterprises with third-generation and fourth-generation high-end low-voltage electrical appliances, their own innovation capabilities, and advanced manufacturing equipment will further stand out in market competition, and the concentration of low-voltage electrical appliance industry and products may further increase.
7. New technologies for overcurrent protection are gradually attracting attention from power systems and electricity consuming units
The new technology of overcurrent protection will gradually attract the attention of power systems and consumers after the launch of the new generation of products in the market. It will fundamentally change the concept of selecting low-voltage circuit breakers. At present, although low-voltage distribution systems and low-voltage electrical appliances in China have selective protection, selective protection is incomplete. The new generation of low-voltage circuit breakers proposes the concept of full current and full range selective protection (referred to as full selective protection). It will completely change the current selective protection of the existing distribution system, limited to the short delay setting current range of the circuit breaker. Exceeding this current may result in the loss of selective protection. In addition, the existing terminal distribution system does not have selective protection function as the main switch is a current limiting switch. So, strictly speaking, the current terminal power distribution system in buildings, especially the power supply system for thousands of households, does not have selective protection. The new generation universal circuit breaker achieves Icu=Ics=Icw and comes with a regional interlocking module. The new generation of molded case circuit breakers have partial current limiting selective protection and regional interlocking modules, as well as the emergence of small circuit breakers with selective protection, SMCB, which creates necessary conditions for achieving full selective protection in distribution systems. It will be a major breakthrough in overcurrent protection technology for low-voltage distribution systems in China. It has profound economic significance and social benefits.
8. Excellent domestic enterprises constantly pay attention to, keep up with, and surpass foreign company products
The new products and market promotion launched by well-known foreign low-voltage electrical manufacturers in recent years have to some extent "motivated" excellent domestic enterprises to constantly pay attention to, keep up with, and surpass foreign company products, otherwise they will lose competitiveness in the market.
The challenges faced by the industry
1. The investment in scientific research and new product development in the low-voltage electrical industry is significantly insufficient, which hinders the sustainable development of the low-voltage electrical industry.
Low voltage electrical products cross multiple disciplines and belong to comprehensive and technology intensive majors. With the development of related technologies, new materials, and new processes, a new generation of low-voltage electrical appliances will emerge, but a large amount of investment is still needed. According to statistics, excellent foreign enterprises can achieve a total sales revenue of about 7% in the research and development of new low-voltage electrical products. The average investment in China's low-voltage electrical industry is 1-2% of total sales, with excellent enterprises accounting for about 3%.
Against the backdrop of the continuous development of new technologies and products for low-voltage electrical appliances, as well as the increasing emphasis on the development of smart grids and safe electricity use, if China's low-voltage electrical appliance industry does not increase investment in scientific research and new product research and development, does not increase basic common technology research, and rapidly improves its independent innovation ability, it will inevitably hinder the sustainable development of China's low-voltage electrical appliance industry and lose its market competitiveness.
2. The irreversible trend of rising manufacturing costs for low-voltage electrical appliances
In China's low-voltage electrical appliances, low-end products are still being produced in large quantities. These products have a large volume and consume a large amount of precious metals such as silver, copper, black metals, plastics, and other materials. Many materials are subject to international market prices. So the situation where the prices of the main raw materials for low-voltage electrical appliances remain high or even continue to rise will be difficult to change.
In addition, with the shortage of funds, rising financial costs, and rapid increase in employee salaries, the increase in personnel costs is also irreversible. It will inevitably lead to a continuous decline in the production profits of low-voltage electrical appliances. Many enterprises are already in a state of low profit and loss. At the same time, it poses difficulties for enterprises to increase investment in scientific research, new product development, and technological transformation.
3. The impact of well-known foreign brands and the entry of domestic monopolistic industries have added insult to injury to the excellent low-voltage electrical appliance enterprises in China
In the construction of smart grids, State Grid Corporation of China and many design departments tend to favor well-known foreign brands. In addition, the direct participation of domestic monopolistic industries in low-voltage electrical appliance manufacturing puts existing domestic enterprises, including excellent ones, at a disadvantage in market competition.
4. There are many production enterprises in the low-voltage electrical industry, but counterfeiting and price competition still exist, making general low-voltage electrical products in a low profit state. Products that previously played a significant role in driving the development of the low-voltage electrical industry, such as DW45 universal circuit breakers, have also seen a significant decrease in profits.
5. Due to the difficulties brought about by the change in the research and development mode of low-voltage electrical appliances.
With the continuous development of the market economy, the pattern of joint design of new products led by research institutes and full industry production has been completely broken. Along with it comes the independent research and development of differentiated new products by enterprises. This results in a significant increase in the trial production workload and trial production costs for the internal and external accessories and main component manufacturers of low-voltage electrical appliances, while the production batch of each accessory or component decreases, making it difficult to form a production scale and generate profits. The low enthusiasm of accessory manufacturers has also brought difficulties to the development of new products for the whole machine factory.
The overall development trend of low-voltage electrical appliances in China during the 12th Five Year Plan period
1. Developing personalized and proprietary products has become the preferred choice for most enterprises. Each enterprise should determine 2-3 levels of products based on its positioning to meet market demands at different levels.
2. Excellent enterprises are considering and carrying out research and development work on new generation low-voltage electrical appliances that are suitable for their own characteristics. As a new generation of low-voltage electrical appliances in the low-voltage electrical industry, it should meet the following basic conditions.
(1) Significant breakthroughs or innovations in the application of new technologies, processes, and materials
(2) Significant innovation in product structure
(3) Product performance and functionality have greatly improved and expanded
(4) Significant breakthroughs in research and design methods
(5) For enterprises that do not have the conditions to develop the above-mentioned products, the manufacturing process and equipment of the products have been greatly improved. They can improve and perfect the existing third-generation products as the new generation products of the enterprise.
3. The first batch of four major series of new generation products developed by Shanghai Dianke Group in collaboration with eight outstanding enterprises in the industry will gradually be launched into the market starting from next year. The low-voltage electrical appliance market will be re divided:
(1) The first generation of products will be basically or completely phased out during the 12th Five Year Plan period
(2) The second generation product will become a low-end product in the low-voltage electrical appliance market and gradually withdraw from the market
(3) The third-generation product will become the dominant product in the low-voltage electrical appliance market
(4) The new generation of products will become high-end products and development directions in the low-voltage electrical appliance market
4. In order to cooperate with the market promotion of the new generation of products and enhance the market competitiveness of enterprises, the new generation of high cost performance, miniaturization, low cost, and popular standard products has attracted everyone's attention. The characteristics of these products should meet the following requirements.
(1) By appropriately reducing performance indicators, it can meet the requirements of about 70% of usage scenarios.
(2) The product has complete basic functions and high reliability.
(3) Product miniaturization and low cost.
5. The integration of low-voltage electrical systems and overall solutions has attracted increasing attention from enterprises. If an enterprise leads in system integration and overall solutions, it is possible to take the lead in market competition step by step. Therefore, in-depth research should be conducted in the following areas.
(1) Typical schemes for low-voltage distribution systems and research on the selection principles and performance coordination of various low-voltage circuit breakers.
(2) Research on low-voltage distribution and control network systems: including network systems, overall system solutions, selection and coordination of various communicable low-voltage electrical appliances and other supporting components.
(3) The overall solution for overcurrent protection in distribution systems aims to achieve full range and full current selective protection in an extremely short period of time
(4) Overall solution for overvoltage protection in distribution systems (including new energy systems).
(5) Integrated solutions for starting, controlling, and protecting various types of motors
(6) Dual power supply system ATSE selects overall solution
6. The development of new generation products must have intelligent and networked functions, which can not only seamlessly connect with various fieldbus systems, but also directly connect with industrial Ethernet. The intelligent functions should continue to expand, and there should be an intersection between distribution appliances and control appliances, that is, comprehensive intelligent functions, to better meet the needs of the smart grid. In the smart grid, ACB is no longer a single protective device, but a comprehensive and multifunctional switch electrical equipment that integrates the five major functions of measurement, inspection, control, protection, and management.